The Polymarket contract on whether Iran will charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31 surged 15.5 percentage points in the last 24 hours, climbing from a YES price of 8.0% to 23.5% as of July 14. This sharp repricing reflects a significant shift in market sentiment around the likelihood of Iran implementing these fees within the month.
Crucially, the price movement was accompanied by whale flow that aligned with the upward price trend, indicating that large traders supported the increased odds rather than opposing the move. This synchrony between whale activity and price action suggests conviction behind the market’s reassessment rather than a price move driven purely by retail or speculative trading.
The 24-hour trading volume stood at $25K, underscoring active engagement in this contract amid the changing geopolitical outlook. The combined price and flow data signal that the market is taking seriously the possibility of Iran instituting these fees within the specified timeframe, reflecting heightened risk perception around developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
This repricing and whale alignment provide a clear read on evolving expectations, marking a notable shift in the Polymarket community’s consensus on this geopolitical event.
| Market | Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2757754 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 23.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 8.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $25K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.