The market on whether Iran will charge fees for Hormuz by October 31 saw its YES contract surge 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours, climbing from 56.5% to 72.0% on Polymarket Breaking. This sharp repricing coincided with whale activity that supported the move, as $12K net flowed into YES positions amid $25K in whale buy volume against $14K sold.
Whales were active and aligned with the tape, contributing to a total 24-hour volume of $27K on a market that has seen $48K lifetime volume from 132 unique traders. The presence of 62 unique whales over the past day highlights broad participation among large players, reinforcing the momentum behind the price shift.
It is notable that the Polymarket Breaking YES price at 72.0% stands well above the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 61.0%, indicating a divergence between the real-time market sentiment and the broader on-chain overview. The combined data suggest that recent whale buying has driven a rapid reassessment of the likelihood that Iran will impose fees on Hormuz shipments by the specified deadline.
This alignment of whale flow with a significant price increase signals growing confidence in the YES outcome, reflecting a market recalibration rather than a speculative divergence. The market’s pace and volume underscore the importance traders place on this geopolitical development and its potential implications for regional trade.
| Market | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2757806 |
| 24h price change | +15.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 72.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 56.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 61.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $12K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $25K / $14K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 62 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $27K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 132 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.