The Polymarket contract “Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?” saw its YES price climb sharply by 16.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours, rising from an estimated 42.5% to a breaking price of 58.5% on July 14, 2026. This notable repricing reflects a significant shift in market expectations around the question.
Whale activity aligned closely with the price move, with net inflows of $18K into YES positions. Whale buy volume totaled $32K, outpacing $15K in sell volume, across 81 unique whale traders. This flow pattern confirms that large traders were backing the rising odds rather than betting against them.
The 24-hour total market volume on Polymarket reached $36K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $370K and involving 633 unique traders overall. It is worth noting the Polymarket Breaking price of 58.5% currently differs from the Polydata on-chain mid-price estimate of 50.0%, highlighting some divergence between market sentiment and on-chain valuation.
The combined increase in YES price and whale buying suggests a growing consensus that Iran will implement fees on Hormuz shipments by the August 31 deadline. The alignment of whale flow with the tape reinforces the conviction behind this price shift, marking a clear directional move in market positioning.
| Market | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2686766 |
| 24h price change | +16.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 58.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 42.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 50.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $18K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $32K / $15K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 81 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $36K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 633 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.