Whales
Whale bought $1.12M on Argentina winning 2026 FIFA World Cup at 22% market probability
A top-ranked trader wagered $1.12M against the market-implied 22.0% chance on Argentina’s World Cup victory, joining broad whale buying.
Jul 15
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds plunge 15.6 points as whales buy $4K in YES
Whale buying diverged from falling prices as market reevaluated Iran’s July 13 targeting of shipping.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran MOU withdrawal odds drop 17pp to 16.5% amid whale buying divergence
Whales increased exposure to YES contracts even as market price fell sharply on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price jumps 17 pp to 90%
Whale buying matched the surge in odds, with $44K net inflow confirming growing conviction in the market.
Jul 15
Breaking
Anthropic IPO Odds Jump 19pp to 43% Backed by $3K Whale Bets
Whales and market action converged as Polymarket’s price for an Anthropic IPO by October 2026 climbed sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? odds fell 62pp in 24h on Polymarket
YES price plunged from 90.5% to 28.5% while whale flow diverged, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran withdrawal from MOU odds drop 23pp despite whale bets rising
Polymarket’s “Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?” market saw a sharp 23.0 pp decline in YES price while whale flow diverged, signaling conflicting signals in sentiment.
Jul 15
Breaking
Toby Doeden’s 2026 SD Governor GOP Primary Odds Drop 33.5 Points Despite $4K Whale Buys
Whale trading and price action diverged sharply as the YES price plunged from 40.5% to 7.0% in 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Breaking
Teresa Ruiz’s Nomination Odds Surge 16pp to 94.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 16.0pp rise in the probability that Teresa Ruiz will secure the Arizona Democratic nomination for Superintendent of Public Instruction.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran withdrawal from MOU odds drop 18pp to 15.5% despite $201K whale buys
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 18 percentage point decline in Polymarket’s odds for Iran exiting negotiations by July 31.
Jul 15