The probability of an Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026, surged 19.0 percentage points in a single day, rising from 24.0% to 43.0% on Polymarket. This notable repricing coincided with whale activity that aligned with the price move, confirming increased confidence among large bettors.
In the past 24 hours, 34 unique whales participated in the market, collectively buying $10K worth of YES contracts while selling $7K, resulting in a net $3K inflow into the YES side. This whale flow closely tracked the price action, indicating that significant traders were reinforcing the market’s upward adjustment rather than opposing it.
Overall trading volume for the market reached $11K in the same period, contributing to a lifetime volume of $168K and involving 410 unique traders to date. The concentrated whale interest and the sharp price gain reflect a meaningful shift in market sentiment about Anthropic’s potential to go public by late 2026.
The convergence of whale buying and a pronounced price increase signals growing conviction in this outcome among Polymarket’s largest participants, suggesting that the market is actively re-evaluating the likelihood of an Anthropic IPO within the specified timeframe.
| Market | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2421094 |
| 24h price change | +19.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 43.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 24.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 43.0% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $3K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $10K / $7K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 34 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $11K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 410 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.