A single $1.12M purchase on “Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” stands out as the largest trade on Polymarket in the last 24 hours. The market priced Argentina’s chance at 22.0% when this order hit, making it a sizable bet against the consensus probability.
The buyer is wallet 0x2c33…0563, which has moved $2.24M across four large World Cup Winner trades today, including selling $804K and buying $203K on England winning, plus a $107K bet on the exact scoreline England 2 – 3 Argentina. This wallet has a strong track record, with 62.5% accuracy across 3,526 resolved positions and a Brier score of 0.2199. It ranks #11 on the 30-day leaderboard with $5.74M realized PnL on $209.83M volume, reflecting consistent success in prediction markets.
The whale’s activity aligns with broader 24-hour whale flow on this market, where $8.14M was bought versus $2.82M sold by 1,251 unique whales. The World Cup Winner event spans 50 markets with $3.97B lifetime volume and 152,808 traders. The largest trader in the event accounts for 4.9% of its volume, while the event’s biggest winner has gained $36.69M and the biggest loser is down $183.32M in estimated PnL.
With the market closing in 5 days, this large bet at odds below the consensus signals a notable position shift by a proven trader. It adds to the whale-driven buying momentum in this high-profile event and highlights how top traders are allocating capital in the lead-up to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| Event | World Cup Winner |
| Wallet | 0x2c335066fe58fe9237c3d3dc7b275c2a034a0563 |
| Amount | $1.12M |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-15T20:15:32Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.