Breaking
YES price on Hormuz transit drops 19.9pp as whale flow diverges
The market for 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, fell sharply despite whales increasing YES bets.
Jul 15
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
“Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?” YES price falls 41.5 pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged from price drop as YES contracts plunged from 55.0% to 13.5% on Polymarket.
Jul 15
Breaking
Ethereum $2,000 July Contract Rises 20pp as Whales Back the Move
The 'Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?' market jumped from 48.5% to 68.5%, supported by $13K whale net inflows over 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
Alibaba AI model odds drop 22.6 pp to 63.6% despite $2K whale buy-in
Whale activity diverged from sharp 24-hour price decline, signaling mixed signals on Alibaba's AI prospects.
Jul 15
Breaking
UK Home Secretary Market YES Price Plunges 34.5 Points Amid Whale Buying Divergence
Despite a sharp 34.5 percentage point drop in the YES price, whales increased their net bets by $7K, signaling conflicting signals on the UK Home Secretary question.
Jul 15
Breaking
John Healey Defence Secretary Odds Drop 29.5pp Despite Whale Buying
Polymarket's contract for Healey as UK Defence Secretary fell sharply in 24 hours even as whale flow favored YES.
Jul 15
Breaking
Moonshot’s odds for best Chinese AI model by July 2026 jump 31.8pp on Polymarket
Whales contributed $4K net buying as YES price surged from 10.0% to 41.8%, signaling a sharp market reassessment.
Jul 15
Breaking
Shabana Mahmood Chancellor odds surge 31.6 pp to 85.2% as whales back YES
Whale activity and price shifts aligned as Polymarket traders sharply raised the probability of Mahmood becoming UK Chancellor in 2026.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 57.5 points despite whale buying
The market price for Iranian military action on July 13 dropped sharply from 90.5% to 33.0% while whale flow diverged by supporting YES positions.
Jul 15
Breaking
Yvette Cooper’s odds as next UK Home Secretary jump 26.3 pp to 32.9% on Polymarket
Whale activity matched the sharp price gain, signaling growing conviction in Cooper’s prospects for 2026.
Jul 15