Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Drop 19.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges
YES price for Iran MOU withdrawal by August 15 fell sharply despite whale buying, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 16
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds jump 28pp to 66.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with the sharp 24-hour rise in odds for extending Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access by July 19.
Jul 16
Whales
$1.53M net whale flow into YES on England winning 2026 World Cup contrasts 0.05% market price
Whales have bought $5.45M against $2.44M sold in 24 hours despite a near-zero market-implied probability for England's victory.
Jul 16
Breaking
South America World Cup 2026 YES Odds Surge 23pp to 42.5% on Whale Buying
Whales contributed $47K net buying as the market doubled its probability for CONMEBOL winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Jul 16
Breaking
Alibaba AI model market falls 25.5pp as whales buy $3K into YES
Polymarket’s “best Chinese AI model” contract dropped from 90.0% to 64.5% despite whale buying, highlighting a split between price action and large trader flow.
Jul 16
Breaking
Alibaba AI model odds plunge 31pp to 58.9% despite $3K whale buy flow
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 24-hour drop in Alibaba's AI market odds, signaling conflicting trader sentiment.
Jul 16
Breaking
Messi Golden Ball Odds Jump 50pp to 90.1% on Polymarket with Whale Buying
Whale activity of $124K into YES contracts aligned with a sharp 50.0 percentage point rise in odds over 24 hours.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Drop 20pp Despite $160K Whale Bets on YES
Whale buying diverged from a sharp market selloff, pushing the YES price from 35.5% to 15.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Drop 20.5 Points Despite $25K Whale Bets on YES
Whale activity diverged sharply from price action as Polymarket’s market on Iran’s MOU withdrawal fell from 32.0% to 11.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 16
Breaking
Mike Lindell’s 2026 Minnesota GOP Governor odds jump 17pp to 43.5% on Polymarket
Whales boosted bets on Lindell with $4K net inflow, driving YES price from 26.5% to 43.5% in 24 hours
Jul 16