Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds jump 26pp to 62.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price movement aligned as market sharply repriced extension likelihood over 24 hours.
Jul 16
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds drop 40pp despite whale buying on Polymarket
YES price for Iran Gulf State military action falls from 78.5% to 38.5% as whale flow diverges from market direction
Jul 16
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? YES price drops 43pp to 34.5% amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s YES contract for Iranian military action loses nearly half its implied probability while whale bets move against the price trend.
Jul 16
Breaking
‘Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?’ YES price drops 32.5 pp in 24h
Significant price decline contrasts with whale buying, signaling mixed market signals on Iran conflict odds.
Jul 16
Breaking
Moonshot AI odds jump 21.3 points to 34% as whale buying backs price move
Whales added $4K net into YES contracts on Moonshot’s Chinese AI model market, matching a sharp 24-hour price rise from 12.6% to 34%.
Jul 16
Breaking
Europe’s 2026 FIFA World Cup Win Odds Drop 22pp Despite $157K Whale Buy-in
Whale activity on Polymarket diverges from sharp 24-hour price decline in Europe’s World Cup winning chances.
Jul 16
Breaking
Odds for Shabana Mahmood as UK Chancellor in 2026 Jump 55.1pp to 86.9% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour surge in odds, pushing confidence in Mahmood's chance significantly higher.
Jul 16
Breaking
YES price jumps 32.5 pp to 91% on Over $30M Credible public sale market
Whales contributed a net $54K buying YES contracts alongside the sharp 24-hour price rise.
Jul 16
Breaking
China Q2 2026 GDP Growth Market Plunges 65.9pp to 0.10% Amid Divergent Whale Flow
Whales added $14K to YES contracts even as market price collapsed from 66.0% to near zero in 24 hours.
Jul 16
Breaking
Post Malone World Cup halftime show odds plunge 39pp as whale flow diverges
Despite a sharp 39.0 pp drop in YES price, whale buying activity moved counter to the market's repricing on Polymarket.
Jul 16