The market on whether Iran will announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31 saw a dramatic shift as the YES contract price tumbled 20.0 percentage points, falling from 35.5% to 15.5% within 24 hours. This sharp decline in implied probability signals a significant change in market expectations on this geopolitical event.
Notably, whale activity diverged from the price movement. Despite the selloff, whales bought aggressively, with a net $160K flowing into YES contracts over the same period. Whale buy volume totaled $241K, outpacing $81K in sell volume, spread across 180 unique whales. This buying interest stands in contrast to the broader market’s rejection of the YES outcome, as total 24-hour Polymarket volume was $216K, below the whale buy volume alone.
Since inception, the market has attracted $2.03 million in volume with 1,747 unique traders, reflecting sustained engagement despite the recent volatility. The divergence between whale flow and price suggests a split in conviction: while retail and general traders sharply downgraded the likelihood of Iran’s withdrawal announcement, whales increased their exposure to that outcome.
The combined data points to a market reassessing Iran’s negotiation stance but with significant insider or informed interest betting on withdrawal.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2643400 |
| 24h price change | +20.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 15.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 35.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 15.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $160K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $241K / $81K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 180 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $216K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 1,747 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-16. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.