Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Polymarket’s contract on Israeli parliament dissolution saw a sharp 64.5 percentage point drop in YES odds, while whale flow moved against the price trend.
@JAHODA places a large $299K wager against consensus on a rare 50+ bps Fed hike after July 2026 meeting.
Whale flow diverged sharply from price as YES contract on Iran Gulf military action dropped from 73.0% to 31.0%.
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in optimism for Claude Fable 5’s paid-plan extension, pushing Polymarket’s YES price from 54.0% to 77.5%.
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in Polymarket odds for Claude Opus release within a week.
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 42pp rise in Polymarket odds for Trump accusing China before July 16, signaling strong conviction.
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 34.2 percentage point decline in YES price on Max Martin attending Taylor Swift's wedding.
A top-performing wallet placed the largest 24-hour trade backing Argentina at odds below market consensus.
Polymarket's ceasefire market saw a sharp 47.0 percentage point fall in YES price, while whale flow diverged by backing YES positions.
Whales increased YES bets by $5K even as market price for Ethereum hitting $2,000 in July fell from 65.5% to 47.5%.
