The market on whether Max Martin will attend Taylor Swift’s wedding saw its YES price plunge 34.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours, falling from 80.4% to 46.1%. This sharp drop in market-implied probability contrasts with whale activity, which added a net $11K into YES contracts during the same period.
Whales showed notable engagement with $20K in buy volume against $9K in sell volume across 71 unique large traders. Despite this bullish whale flow, the overall market volume for the day was $21K, signaling that most trading followed the downward price trend rather than the whale buying pressure.
The lifetime market volume stands at $131K with 306 unique traders participating since inception. The divergence between whale flow and price movement highlights a split in conviction: while large players accumulated YES positions, the broader market sharply reduced the probability of Max Martin attending the wedding.
The contrasting signals from price and whale flow underscore uncertainty about this outcome’s likelihood in the near term.
| Market | Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift’s wedding? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 941765 |
| 24h price change | +34.2 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 46.1% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 80.4% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 46.1% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $11K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $20K / $9K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 71 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $21K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 306 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-17. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.