A $474K buy order on “Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” stands out as the largest trade on Polymarket in the last 24 hours and runs counter to the market-implied probability of 41.6% for that outcome. This wager was placed by wallet 0xc3ac…b964, which has a 74.1% accuracy record across 116 resolved positions and a Brier score of 0.1921, indicating strong historical performance in prediction markets.
The total volume in this market is $153.26M, which is part of the broader “World Cup Winner” event encompassing 50 markets with $3.99B in lifetime volume and 155,004 traders. Whale activity over the past 24 hours shows $2.15M bought versus $685K sold by 654 unique whales, and this trade joins that broader whale buying trend.
The event’s single largest trader accounts for 4.7% of its volume, and the market closes in 5 days. The largest winner in the event has gained an estimated $36.66M in PnL, while the biggest loser stands at a $177.37M loss. Against this backdrop, 0xc3ac…b964’s $474K bet signals a significant position pushing against the consensus odds, reflecting a notable divergence by a wallet with a proven record in prediction accuracy.
This trade highlights both the scale and conviction behind the wager on Argentina’s chances, as it combines a substantial dollar amount with an experienced trader’s history of success, emphasizing its importance within the World Cup Winner market.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| Event | World Cup Winner |
| Wallet | 0xc3acf5878a03523d09a3ac859943445d7baeb964 |
| Amount | $474K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-15T22:48:52Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.