Breaking
Claude Opus July 31, 2026 Release Market YES Price Drops 15pp Amid Divergent Whale Flow
YES contract price for next Claude Opus model release fell from 86.5% to 71.5% despite whale activity moving against the price trend.
Jul 17
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Max Martin wedding attendance odds plunge 40.1 pp despite $11K whale bets
Whale buying diverged from a sharp halving in Yes price on Polymarket's Max Martin wedding market.
Jul 17
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 YES price plunges 80.8pp despite $24K whale buying
Polymarket’s SpaceX launch market dropped from 81.5% to 0.65% even as whales bought $24K into YES contracts, signaling a divergence between price and whale flow.
Jul 17
Daily
Polymarket Sees $38.20M in 24-Hour Volume, 34% Below Recent Average
Trading activity on Polymarket slowed to $38.20M in volume with over 1.8M trades across 53,011 wallets active in the last day.
Jul 17
Breaking
NVIDIA second-largest market cap odds jump 15 pp to 24.5% with whale buying
Whales contributed $4K net into YES contracts as Polymarket traders sharply repriced NVIDIA's market cap prospect.
Jul 16
Breaking
Trump China interference accusation odds jump 16 points to 78% on Polymarket
Whale activity tracked with price surge as market reevaluates the likelihood of a Trump accusation by mid-July.
Jul 16
Breaking
“Will a Chinese company have a top 10 AI model by year-end?” YES jumps 17.2pp to 99.2%
Polymarket’s price surge aligns with whale activity, confirming near-certain odds in a $6K volume market.
Jul 16
Breaking
Polymarket’s Iran Gulf military action contract drops 35.5pp as whale flow diverges
YES price for Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16? plunged from 73.0% to 37.5%, while whale activity moved against the price shift.
Jul 16
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 Extension YES Price Jumps 21pp to 74% with Whale Support
Whale buying aligned with a 21 percentage point rise in odds for Claude Fable 5 paid-plan extension by July 19, reflecting growing market conviction.
Jul 16
Breaking
Ethereum $2,000 July Market Slides 23.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges
YES contract for Ethereum hitting $2,000 in July dropped from 67.5% to 44.0%, while whales added $6K net into YES, signaling a split between price and big-money bets.
Jul 16