Breaking
AI model hitting 1550 Math Arena Score by end-2026 jumps 20.5pp to 50.5% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp rise in odds, pushing the market from 30.0% to 50.5% in 24 hours despite on-chain price divergence.
Jul 9
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
“Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?” YES price drops 32pp to 57%
A sharp 32 percentage point decline in the YES price contrasts with whale flow, which diverged from the market move.
Jul 9
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on Iran shipping strike plunges 19.7 pp despite $5K whale buying
Whale activity diverged sharply from market prices as YES odds dropped from 26.6% to 6.9% on July 9
Jul 9
Breaking
Count Binface’s second place odds plunge 33.5 points to 46% amid diverging whale flow
While the YES contract for Count Binface in the Clacton by-election fell sharply, whale trading diverged from the price move, signaling a split in market sentiment.
Jul 9
Breaking
Count Binface’s second place odds drop 23.5 points despite whale buying
Polymarket’s Clacton by-election market shifts sharply lower on second place probability as whale flow diverges from price move.
Jul 9
Breaking
OpenAI GPT model debut odds plunge 18pp to 12% as whale flow diverges
Whales added $4K to YES contracts even as Polymarket prices the GPT model debut significantly lower.
Jul 9
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 9?” YES price drops 19.3 pp amid whale-price divergence
Whales bought $6K into YES even as Polymarket’s price fell from 21.3% to 2.0%, signaling conflicting signals on the event’s likelihood.
Jul 9
Breaking
Burna Boy World Cup halftime show odds surge 19.9pp to 98.4% on Polymarket
Whales added $4K to YES contracts as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of Burna Boy performing in 2026.
Jul 9
Breaking
AI model hitting 1550 Math Arena Score by 2026 odds jump 16pp to 47.5% on Polymarket
Whales added $3K net into YES contracts as market price rose sharply, though Polydata's mid-price remains far higher at 87%.
Jul 9
Breaking
Bitcoin $60K July dip odds drop 17.5pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket's 'Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?' market saw YES price fall from 70.0% to 52.5% despite whale activity moving against the trend.
Jul 9