Breaking
Iran military action odds plunge 39.6 points despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price while whale flow moved opposite the tape.
Jul 10
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Whales
$419K Whale Bet Challenges Morocco’s 2026 World Cup Odds at 0.05%
A top-accuracy trader placed a large buy on Morocco in a $152.25M market, pushing against a longshot price.
Jul 10
Breaking
Polymarket odds for Iran Gulf military action drop 15.2 points despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged from the price as market odds for Iranian military action against a Gulf State slid from 20.0% to 4.8% in 24 hours.
Jul 10
Whales
$466K Buy Bets Against Consensus on Lindblad for 2026 F1 Title
A single wallet placed $830K on low-probability F1 championship outcomes, joining whale buying momentum.
Jul 10
Breaking
Ethereum $1,700 July Dip Odds Drop 15pp as Whale Flow Diverges
Polymarket’s Ethereum dip market saw a 15.0pp decline in YES price despite whale bets moving against the trend.
Jul 10
Breaking
Anthropic Math AI odds drop 28pp as whale flow diverges from price move
Despite a 28.0 pp plunge in YES price, whales pushed $5K into the contract, signaling conflicting signals in the market.
Jul 10
Whales
Whale Buys $473K on France Win at 61.4% Market Probability
A single wallet placed $1.24M in large trades today on France to win, moving with the broader whale flow despite the market's moderate odds.
Jul 10
Breaking
Next Grok model debut odds plunge 63.5pp to 3.0% despite whale buying
Whales increased net YES exposure even as market price for xAI’s Grok model score plummeted, signaling conflicting signals among traders.
Jul 10
Whales
$987K Net Whale Flow Into Yes on Belgium World Cup Win Amid 2.1% Market Price
Big traders are accumulating Belgium at odds diverging sharply from the market-implied 2.1% probability.
Jul 10
Breaking
25pp Surge in Odds the 2026 United Left Primary Will Be Canceled as Whales Back the Move
Polymarket’s YES price jumps from 49.5% to 74.5% on $8K whale inflows, signaling sharp repricing on French election primary cancellation.
Jul 10