A $473K buy order was placed on the prediction market question “Will France win on 2026-07-09?” by wallet 0xd1c5…cbd0, in the context of a total $1.24M traded by the same wallet across five large trades on this event today. This market, centered on the France vs. Morocco matchup, has seen $18.50M in total volume to date.
The wallet’s activity included both buying and selling on the same outcome, with $281K sold and $229K bought on the same question, as well as a $145K sell order, indicating active position management. The wallet has a lifetime volume of $35.73M across 11,714 trades in 33 markets, and a resolved market accuracy of 57.6% over 33 positions, with a Brier score of 0.2150, reflecting a solid track record.
At the time of the trade, the market-implied probability for France winning was 61.4%. The wallet’s $473K buy adds significant weight to the position at odds slightly below the market consensus. This move aligns with broader whale activity in the market over the past 24 hours, where $9.18M was bought against $4.22M sold by 1,827 unique whales, indicating strong whale interest in backing France.
This concentrated activity by a highly active and historically accurate wallet adds nuance to the market’s positioning on France’s chances. The sizable and repeated trades on the same outcome highlight strategic engagement rather than isolated speculation. The event’s total whale volume and this wallet’s significant share underscore the importance of monitoring whale flows for signals in this market.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will France win on 2026-07-09? |
| Event | France vs. Morocco |
| Wallet | 0xd1c537b2a7cba8d365e111bffb9de7b205e2cbd0 |
| Amount | $473K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-09T18:21:40Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.