Whales
Whales Bet $761K on Spain to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 16.5% Market Price
Large traders have pushed $3.04M into Spain bets over 24 hours, diverging sharply from the market-implied 16.5% probability.
Jul 10
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Odds for xAI’s next Grok model debuting above 1460 score plunged 56.5pp in 24h
Whale trading diverged from the sharp drop as YES price sank from 68.0% to 11.6% on Polymarket.
Jul 10
Breaking
OpenAI model score market YES price plunges 70.9 pp amid whale flow-price split
YES contract on OpenAI model debut score fell from 81.5% to 10.6% while whales bought $3K into YES, diverging from price action.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 38pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price despite whale activity moving against the decline.
Jul 10
Whales
$508K Buy on Belgium at 1.8% Implied Probability Defies World Cup Market Consensus
A wallet with 76.5% accuracy across 654 positions places a $619K wager on low-probability World Cup outcomes, joining strong whale buying in a $126.5M market.
Jul 10
Breaking
OpenAI GPT model 1480+ score odds jump 19.5pp to 54% as whales back YES
Whales contributed $11K net buying alongside a 19.5 percentage point surge in YES price on Polymarket, signaling rising confidence in high GPT model performance by 2026.
Jul 10
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 32pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket's market on Iran's July 10 military action dropped from 37.0% to 5.0% despite whale activity opposing the price move.
Jul 10
Whales
Whales add $300K to Switzerland win bets despite 1.8% market price
Big-money investors push $300K into yes side on Switzerland winning 2026 World Cup, contrasting with low market odds.
Jul 10
Breaking
19pp Surge in Odds for Next GPT Model Scoring 1480+ by End of 2026
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 19-point increase in the Polymarket YES price, lifting market confidence in OpenAI’s upcoming model.
Jul 10
Breaking
Anthropic Math AI Odds Drop 34.5pp as Whale Flow Diverges from Price Move
YES contract for Anthropic’s top Math AI model claim plunged from 73.5% to 39.0%, while whales increased YES bets by $5K.
Jul 10