Whales
$463K Net Whale Flow Into YES on Norway World Cup Win Defies 5.9% Market Price
Despite a 5.9% market-implied probability, whales have pushed $463K net into Norway winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup over 24 hours.
Jul 11
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Next Grok Model Debut Odds Collapse 74.2pp to 3.2% on Polymarket
Whale activity diverged sharply from the 74.2pp plunge in YES price, signaling conflicting views on xAI’s model performance.
Jul 11
Whales
$1.26M Net Whale Flow Bets on Belgium to Win 2026 World Cup Despite 0.05% Market Price
Whales have poured $1.26M net into Belgium winning, diverging sharply from the market's 0.05% implied probability on $129.28M volume.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price falls 17.5 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s market on Credible public sale commitment saw YES odds drop from 38.0% to 20.5%, while whale flow moved against the price trend.
Jul 11
Breaking
Will BBL Esports Be Last VCT EMEA Team Standing? YES Jumps 54.1 Points to 100%
Whale activity aligned with a dramatic market surge, pushing the YES price from 45.9% to full certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 11
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds plunge 20pp despite whale buying
Whale flow diverged sharply from a 20.0 percentage point drop in YES price on Polymarket.
Jul 11
Breaking
YES price plummets 84.9 pp on OpenAI GPT model score market as whale flow diverges
Despite a sharp 84.9 percentage point drop in YES price, whale buying surged $13K into the contract, marking a rare divergence between price and large trader activity.
Jul 11
Whales
$342K Bet Against Consensus on Norway Winning 2026 FIFA World Cup
A single wallet placed $427K on Norway’s 2026 World Cup win, defying the market’s 5.9% implied probability and joining whale buying trends.
Jul 11
Breaking
Strait of Hormuz traffic normalcy odds drop 15pp to 34.5% despite whale selling
Polymarket’s ‘Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?’ market saw a sharp 15.0pp decline in YES price while whale flow diverged by selling into the dip.
Jul 11
Breaking
Google Math AI odds jump 36 points to 51% as whales back YES
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 36.0 pp rise in the probability Google leads in Math AI by July 2026.
Jul 11