The Polymarket contract “Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?” saw its YES price collapse 84.9 percentage points in 24 hours, falling from approximately 86.0% to just 1.1% as of July 11, 2026. This dramatic repricing signals a sudden shift in market sentiment or information affecting expectations for the upcoming GPT model’s performance.
Contrasting with the steep price drop, whale activity displayed a notable divergence: large traders collectively bought $18K worth of YES contracts while selling only $5K, resulting in a net $13K inflow into YES positions. The presence of 51 unique whales engaging in this sizable net buy suggests institutional or high-net-worth participants are expressing confidence in the YES outcome despite the market’s sharp decline.
This divergence is further underscored by the difference between Polymarket’s live YES price of 1.1% and the Polydata on-chain mid-price of 76.5%, indicating discrepancies in pricing across data sources or potential latency in market updates.
Total 24-hour volume on the market reached $18K, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $76K with 268 unique traders participating.
Such a divergence between whale flow and price suggests increased uncertainty or conflicting signals about the likelihood of the next GPT model achieving a score of at least 1470 by the end of 2026. It underscores the importance of monitoring both price and large trader behavior to fully grasp market sentiment shifts on this contract.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2668020 |
| 24h price change | +84.9 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.1% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 86.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 76.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $13K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $18K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 51 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $18K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 268 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.