A large trade of $342K was placed on the question “Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?” by wallet 0x2149…c8dd, part of a total $427K deployed today across two buys on the same outcome. This bet stands out for pushing against the market consensus, which prices Norway’s chances at a 5.9% implied probability, marking Norway as a longshot in this market.
The wallet has a substantial trading history with $5.25M in lifetime volume across 1,338 trades spanning 14 markets. This suggests an experienced participant making a significant wager against prevailing odds.
The trade aligns with broader whale activity in the market, where 405 unique whales bought $2.80M versus $957K sold in the past 24 hours. The “2026 FIFA World Cup Winner” event encompasses 50 markets with $3.86B in lifetime volume and 143,360 traders, making this a highly liquid and competitive space. Within this event, the largest single trader accounts for 5.6% of the volume.
Market activity is intensifying as the market closes in 10 days, with the largest estimated winner having gained $49.72M and the largest loser down $202.68M so far. The $342K purchase on Norway’s victory is notable not just for size but for its challenge to the market’s probability, signaling a significant divergence in expectations from a wallet with a deep trading footprint.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? |
| Event | 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner |
| Wallet | 0x2149c9878c8d9156dadd3329b7922fb02568c8dd |
| Amount | $342K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-10T10:24:58Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.