Breaking
Anthropic Math AI odds drop 32pp to 48.5% despite $10K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from a sharp Polymarket price decline on Anthropic's AI model market, signaling mixed sentiment.
Jul 11
#%sprediction markets
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 1,224 stories.
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on next GPT model debut plunges 87pp despite $20K whale inflow
Whales bought $20K in YES contracts even as Polymarket’s price dropped from 87.0% to 0.05% in 24 hours, signaling a sharp divergence between price action and whale activity.
Jul 11
Breaking
Next GPT model debut odds plunge 86.4pp to 0.80% on Polymarket amid whale divergence
Polymarket’s “Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?” contract dropped sharply despite whales avoiding YES bets.
Jul 11
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 25pp despite $51K whale buy flow
Whale purchases of $51K into YES contracts contrast with a sharp 25 percentage point decline in Polymarket odds for a US-Iran meeting by July 17, 2026.
Jul 11
Breaking
US x Iran diplomatic meeting odds plunge 25pp as whale buying diverges from price
Whales bought $56K into YES contracts despite a sharp 25.0pp drop in odds over 24 hours on Polymarket.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 40.5 Points as Whale Bets Support Rally
The probability of Iran taking military action against a Gulf State on July 9 rose sharply to 54.5%, backed by aligned whale trading.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 23.2 Points to 37% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with the sharp 24-hour rise in odds for Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9.
Jul 11
Whales
Whales Back Switzerland at 1.7% in World Cup 2026 Market Despite Low Odds
$383K net whale flow into YES contrasts with the market's 1.7% implied probability in a $123.48M volume market.
Jul 11
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 41.5pp to 54.6% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp jump in probability for Iran's July 9 Gulf military action market, signaling growing conviction.
Jul 11
Breaking
Russia entry into Shevchenko market jumps 15.2 pp to 97.7% as whales add $21K
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise, pushing the market closer to certainty despite on-chain price discrepancy.
Jul 11