The probability of the next GPT model by OpenAI hitting a debut score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026, collapsed by 86.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours on Polymarket, falling from 87.2% to 0.80%. This dramatic shift marks a major revaluation of the contract’s outlook within a single day.
Interestingly, this steep decline in the YES price was not accompanied by whale buying; on the contrary, whale flow diverged from the price move, refraining from placing net bets on YES despite the market’s sharp sell-off. The $31K in 24-hour trading volume suggests moderate liquidity but no overwhelming surge in activity to counterbalance the price drop.
This divergence between whale behavior and price action signals a complex market dynamic.
Together, the drastic 86.4pp drop combined with whale reluctance to bet YES points to unsettled sentiment and a market in flux over the GPT model’s future performance. It highlights the importance of monitoring both price trends and whale flow to gauge conviction behind major probability shifts on Polymarket.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2831020 |
| 24h price change | +86.4 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.80% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 87.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $31K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.