The market on whether the next GPT model by OpenAI will debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026, saw a dramatic price collapse over the past 24 hours. The YES contract price tumbled 87.0 percentage points, falling from 87.0% to just 0.05% on Polymarket’s platform.
This steep drop in price contrasts sharply with whale trading activity, which moved in the opposite direction. Over the same period, whales net bought $20K worth of YES contracts, with $25K in buy volume against only $5K in sell volume, across 52 unique whale wallets. Total 24-hour volume on the market was $26K, close to the whale buy volume alone, indicating whales dominated recent trading.
The divergence between whale flow and price movement is notable and flagged by Polydata’s on-chain data. While Polymarket’s current YES price is 0.05%, Polydata’s on-chain mid-price shows a significantly higher 76.5%, underscoring a disconnect between the tape and whale demand.
Since inception, the market has seen $84K in lifetime volume from 282 unique traders, but recent activity has concentrated heavily among whales. The mismatch between sharp price decline and strong whale buying suggests uncertainty or differing views on the probability of the GPT milestone being reached.
| Market | Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2668020 |
| 24h price change | +87.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 0.05% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 87.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 76.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $20K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $25K / $5K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 52 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $26K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 282 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.