Breaking
Google Math AI Model Odds Surge 41.5pp to 53.5% on Polymarket Amid Whale Buying
Whale activity of $6K net inflow into YES contracts supported a sharp repricing from 12.0% to 53.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 11
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Whales
$296K Bet Against Consensus on DeSantis 2028 Nomination Market
A single $296K purchase by @Ferwhere challenges the market’s 2.1% probability for Ron DeSantis winning the 2028 Republican nomination.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?” YES price drops 18pp amid whale divergence
The market's YES probability plunged from 41.5% to 23.5% despite whale flow moving against the price shift.
Jul 11
Breaking
Google Math AI model odds jump 36.5pp to 50% as whales back YES
Whale buying of $6K confirms sharp 24-hour rise in Polymarket odds for Google’s lead in Math AI by July 2026.
Jul 11
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds drop 21pp despite whale buying
YES contract for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026 fell from 44.0% to 23.0% while whale flow diverged, signaling mixed market signals.
Jul 11
Breaking
Odds for xAI’s next Grok model debuting above 1460 score plunge 68.3pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged from the steep drop in YES price, signaling conflicting market signals.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Kash Patel out by December 31?” YES jumps 17.0 pp as whales back the move
Polymarket’s contract on Kash Patel’s departure sees a sharp repricing from 40.0% to 57.0%, supported by $8K whale net inflows.
Jul 11
Breaking
“Kash Patel out by December 31?” YES price jumps 20pp to 60.5% with $8K whale buys
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise, pushing odds from 40.5% to 60.5% on Polymarket Breaking data.
Jul 11
Breaking
Trump housing bill market YES price plunges 31.8 pp despite $9K whale buying
Whale activity on Polymarket diverged sharply from a steep 31.8 percentage point drop in the YES contract price.
Jul 11
Breaking
YES price on xAI Grok model debut plunges 74pp to 3.1% as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s odds for Grok’s next model hitting 1460 score by end-2026 collapsed sharply while whale bets did not follow the sell-off.
Jul 11