The market on whether Kash Patel will be out by December 31% surged 17.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from an estimated 40.0% to 57.0%. This significant repricing reflects a notable shift in sentiment among traders on Polymarket as of July 11, 2026.
Whale activity aligned with this price move, with net inflows of $8K into YES contracts. Total whale buy volume reached $18K while sell volume stood at $10K, spread across 65 unique whale traders. This flow confirms the market’s upward adjustment in the probability of Patel’s departure by year-end.
Polymarket’s overall 24-hour volume on this market was $15K, contributing to a lifetime volume of $327K from 919 unique traders. The alignment between whale flow and price movement suggests a coordinated reassessment rather than a divergence between large traders and the broader market.
This combined surge in price and whale participation signals growing conviction behind the YES outcome, highlighting increased confidence in this scenario within the prediction market community.
| Market | Kash Patel out by December 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 1795655 |
| 24h price change | +17.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 57.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 40.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $8K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $18K / $10K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 65 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $15K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 919 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.