The Polymarket prediction market “Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?” saw its YES price fall sharply by 18.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 41.5% to 23.5% as of the July 11 snapshot.
This decline in market-implied probability occurred even as whale trading activity diverged from the price action, signaling a disconnect between large-volume traders and the broader market sentiment. Whale flow did not support the price move, indicating that major players were not increasing their YES exposure in line with the falling odds.
Despite the price drop, the 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this contract remained modest at $13K, suggesting limited liquidity or cautious participation from the wider trading community.
The divergence between whale flow and the YES price suggests a complex dynamic where the broader market is repricing the likelihood of over $40 million being committed to the Credible public sale, while whales maintain a different stance.
Overall, the combined price decline and opposing whale activity highlight uncertainty around the outcome, emphasizing a split in conviction among market participants.
| Market | Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2845814 |
| 24h price change | +18.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 23.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 41.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $13K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.