Polymarket’s market on whether Anthropic will extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access by July 12 saw its YES price fall sharply by 15.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours, dropping from an estimated 34.0% to 19.0% on July 11. This sizable repricing signals a significant reduction in market confidence that the extension will occur within the specified timeframe.
Interestingly, whale activity did not follow the downward price adjustment. Despite the YES price decline, whales were net buyers, injecting capital into the YES side.
The total volume traded in the past day was $9K, indicating moderate engagement from the wider community amid the price and flow disagreement. The conflicting signals between price and whale flow highlight a nuanced market dynamic where retail and large players differ on the likelihood of Anthropic’s extension decision.
Polymarket’s latest price adjustment reduces the implied probability of Claude Fable 5’s paid-plan extension by a substantial margin, while whale interest in YES contracts points to potential skepticism about the price drop’s completeness or timing.
Overall, the combination of a sharp price decline and opposing whale flow paints a complex picture of market sentiment, underscoring ongoing debate about Anthropic’s near-term plans.
| Market | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2839715 |
| 24h price change | +15.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 19.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 34.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-11. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.