The Polymarket contract “US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?” saw its YES price climb 22.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours, rising from 24.5% to 47.0% as of the July 12 snapshot. This significant repricing coincided with whale flow that moved in the same direction, confirming the shift in market sentiment.
Trading volume for the contract reached $10K during this period, indicating active participation around this question. The alignment between whale flow and the price increase suggests that larger traders have stepped in to support the view that the US will reissue sanction relief by the stated deadline.
This move reflects a rapid reassessment of the likelihood of sanction relief, nearly doubling the market’s implied probability in a single day. The combined price and flow dynamics underscore a strong consensus emerging among informed participants, providing a clearer signal on expectations for US policy toward Iran’s oil sanctions by the end of July.
| Market | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2849355 |
| 24h price change | +22.5 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 47.0% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 24.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $10K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-12. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.