Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,182 stories.
Polymarket’s YES price for a US blockade on Iran fell sharply from 45.5% to 30.0% in 24 hours, while whales bought $129K worth of contracts, signaling a divergence between price action and whale behavior.
Whale activity diverged from the sharp drop in odds on US blockade announcement by July 31, signaling mixed sentiment.
Whales added $5K net into YES as Polymarket’s odds for Iran targeting shipping on July 13 rose sharply in 24 hours.
Whales contributed a net $3K buying YES contracts as the market’s probability more than doubled in 24 hours.
Whales bought $3K into YES while Polymarket price fell sharply, signaling conflicting signals on Nigel Farage’s by-election performance.
Whale trading activity tracked the sharp rise in market odds, signaling growing confidence in a high traffic day through the Strait of Hormuz.
Whale purchases of $133K into YES diverge sharply from the 20.5 pp price decline to 30.0% on Polymarket.
Whale buying of $144K in YES contracts contrasts sharply with a 23.0 percentage point decline in the market’s odds over 24 hours.
Whale flow diverged sharply from price, signaling conflicting signals on Polymarket’s Iran blockade market.
A $299K bet from experienced trader @Dafu0715 backs a longshot outcome priced at 12.5%, joining a $1.06M whale buying wave on the market.
