Breaking
Odds for 30 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, jump 16.8 pp to 30.8%
Whales increased exposure with $6K net inflow into YES contracts, aligning with the sharp price move on Polymarket.
Jul 20
#%smaritime
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 8 stories.
Breaking
“Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?” YES price plunges 58.2 pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged sharply from price action as the market’s probability collapsed from near certainty to under 40%.
Jul 14
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 15pp in 24h
Whale trading diverges sharply from price, signaling conflicting views on maritime traffic odds by July 2026
Jul 13
Breaking
YES price falls 19 pp to 36% on Strait of Hormuz transit market as whale flow diverges
Polymarket's '40 ships transit Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026' contract dropped sharply despite whale activity opposing the move.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds Jump 15.8pp to 40% on Strait of Hormuz Transit Market in 24h
Whale activity tracked the sharp rise in YES price, signaling aligned conviction on July 31 transit estimates.
Jul 12
Breaking
“Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?” YES price drops 34pp in 24h
Polymarket’s price plunge to 36.5% on the Strait of Hormuz transit question contrasts with whale flow, signaling market uncertainty.
Jul 12
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on 40 ships transiting Strait of Hormuz drops 31.5 pp in 24h
Price and whale flow diverged sharply as market probability fell from 71.0% to 39.5% despite no whale buying support.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds for 40 Ships Transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026, Drop 30pp in 24h
Whale activity diverged from the sharp price decline, signaling mixed market signals on this maritime transit event.
Jul 12