The probability that 30 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, rose sharply by 16.8 percentage points over the past 24 hours, climbing from 14.0% to 30.8% on Polymarket. This notable repricing reflects a substantial shift in market sentiment within a single day.
Whale activity matched this surge, with 41 unique large traders contributing a net $6K inflow into YES contracts. Their buy volume totaled $17K, while sell volume was $12K, indicating a clear tilt toward increasing bullish exposure. Total 24-hour volume on the market was $14K, slightly below whale buy volume alone, signaling that whales dominated the recent trading activity.
With a lifetime market volume of $370K and 318 unique traders overall, this market shows sustained trader interest, but the recent price and flow alignment highlights a fresh wave of conviction. The combined price jump and whale buying suggest that participants are reassessing the likelihood of significant maritime traffic through this strategic chokepoint by mid-2026.
This coordinated movement between price and whale flow points to a reinforced market consensus rather than conflicting signals, signaling that the odds for this event have materially increased in the eyes of major traders.
| Market | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2820499 |
| 24h price change | +16.8 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 30.8% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 14.0% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 30.8% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $6K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $17K / $12K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 41 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $14K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 318 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-20. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.