The Polymarket contract asking whether 40 ships will transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026, saw its YES price fall by 15.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours, sliding from 38.5% to 23.5% as of the July 14 snapshot.
This significant repricing occurred despite whale trading flows moving in the opposite direction, marking a clear divergence between large traders’ bets and the broader market price action. The 24-hour trading volume on Polymarket for this question was $9K, indicating moderate activity amid the price shift.
Such a divergence suggests that while the general market is lowering its expectations for the likelihood of 40 ships transiting the strategic waterway by the specified date, whales are increasing their net exposure to the YES side.
The conflict between price and whale flow highlights uncertainty and varying sentiment about future shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz. The combined price drop and whale buying activity signal a contested outlook rather than a clear consensus on this event’s probability.
| Market | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2853082 |
| 24h price change | +15.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 23.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 38.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $9K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.