Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 68.5pp to 11.5% amid divergent whale flow
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” contract dropped sharply despite whale bets opposing the price move.
Jul 9
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Collapse 61.7 Points Despite Whale Buying
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” market saw YES contract prices plunge from 76.5% to 14.8% while whale flow diverged, signaling skepticism among large traders.
Jul 9
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 75.8pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?' market saw a sharp 75.8pp drop in YES price amid whale flow opposing the move.
Jul 9
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds plunge 59.9pp as whale flow diverges sharply
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” market saw a steep drop in YES price despite whale bets moving against the trend.
Jul 9
Breaking
Odds Iran Will Withdraw from MOU by July 10 Drop 15pp to 1.5% on Polymarket
Sharp decline in YES price contrasts with whale flow, signaling diverging trader views ahead of deadline.
Jul 9
Breaking
Iran MOU Withdrawal Odds Drop 20.5pp Despite Whale Bets
Polymarket's 'Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10?' market slashed YES price from 22.5% to 2.0%, even as whale flow opposed the move.
Jul 9
Breaking
Russia-Ukraine diplomatic meeting odds jump 15pp to 52% on Polymarket
Whales and retail traders aligned as the market sharply repriced the chance of talks by July 31, 2026.
Jul 9
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?” YES price falls 17 pp amid whale-buy divergence
Despite a 17.0 pp plunge in the YES price to 1.1%, whales increased their net $9K bets on the outcome, signaling conflicting signals in the Polymarket market.
Jul 9
Whales
$287K Whale Bet Challenges 8.5% Market Odds on Putin Exit by 2026
Top trader @ReedUpdatee places a large buy against the consensus in a $19.17M market with 68.2% accuracy record.
Jul 9
Whales
@elmcap2 places $814K bet against 0.30% market odds on Iran MOU withdrawal
The trader’s $814K buy on a longshot outcome joins $1.23M whale buying in a market totaling $1.27M in volume.
Jul 8