A single $814K purchase on the question “Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?” contrasts sharply with the market’s implied probability of just 0.30%, marking a significant bet against the consensus. The trade was made by wallet @elmcap2, whose reputation includes 85.7% accuracy across 936 resolved positions and a lifetime volume of $254.27M over 79,236 trades.
This wager is part of a broader $3.99M total investment by @elmcap2 today, including additional buys of $2.93M and $250K on the separate market “Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?”. The market for the Iran MOU question has seen $1.27M in total volume, with whales collectively buying $1.23M against $40K sold by 93 unique whale traders over the past 24 hours. This $814K trade aligns with the broader whale flow in the market.
The gap between the stake size and the low market-implied probability highlights a concentrated move against prevailing market expectations. Given the wallet’s strong track record, this sizable position signals a notable divergence from consensus sentiment on this geopolitical event.
The Iran MOU withdrawal market now reflects both substantial whale activity and a high-profile bet challenging the status quo, underscoring the tensions in market sentiment as the July 7 deadline approaches.
| Direction | BUY |
|---|---|
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7? |
| Event | Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by…? |
| Wallet | @elmcap2 · 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5 |
| Amount | $814K |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/moves · snapshot 2026-07-08T06:01:25Z. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.