The probability that Iran will announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10 plunged 15.0 percentage points on Polymarket over the past 24 hours, dropping from 16.5% to 1.5%. This steep decline reflects a sudden shift in market sentiment against the withdrawal scenario.
Despite the sharp fall in the YES contract price, whale activity diverged from the price movement. Large traders did not follow the tape; their flow ran counter to the steep drop, indicating a split in conviction between retail and whale participants. Total volume on the market reached $129K in the same period, marking significant engagement amid the volatility.
This divergence suggests that while the broader market has sharply discounted the odds of Iran pulling out of the MOU negotiations by the imminent July 10 deadline, major players have not fully capitulated to this view. The conflicting signals between price action and whale flow imply uncertainty among informed traders about the outcome, highlighting the complexity of geopolitical developments impacting this market.
Overall, the combination of a rapid price decline and opposing whale flow points to a contested outlook on Iran’s negotiation stance, with market participants divided on the likelihood of a withdrawal announcement before the deadline.
| Market | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 10? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2849065 |
| 24h price change | +15.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 1.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 16.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $129K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-09. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.