Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Surge 88 Points to 94.5% on Polymarket
Whale trading volume aligned with sharp repricing, pushing probability from 6.5% to near certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 12
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Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action probability jumps 83.5 points to 90% on July 12 market
Polymarket’s contract on Iran taking military action against a Gulf State sees aligned whale flow and a surge in odds to 90%.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action odds spike 87 points to 93.5% on Polymarket
Whale trading backed the rapid jump in probability for Iran’s military action against a Gulf State on July 12.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds on Strait of Hormuz Transits July 31 Jump 23.2pp to 44.1%
Whale activity aligned with a sharp price rise in the market for average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 24pp to 38.5% with $191K whale inflow
Whales and market price moved together as the probability of a US blockade on Iran by July 31 surged sharply.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran military action on July 12? YES jumps 83.5 pp to 90.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour repricing from 7.0% to 90.5%, signaling strong market conviction.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 80pp to 86.5% on Polymarket
Whale bets reinforced a sharp shift in expectations for Iran's military move, with contract prices jumping from 6.5% to 86.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 12
Breaking
Odds Rise 17 pp to 41% on US Warships Transiting Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026
Whale activity moved in tandem with a sharp price increase, lifting market confidence in US naval passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 12
Breaking
US Iran blockade odds jump 23pp to 38.5% with $193K whale buying
Whales reinforced a sharp 24-hour rise in Polymarket’s contract pricing US blockade of Iran by July 31.
Jul 12
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 75.5 pp to 82% as whales back the move
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?” market jumps sharply with whale flows confirming the shift.
Jul 12