Breaking
Iran Military Action Odds Surge 66.7 Points to 87.8% on Polymarket
Whale activity and market pricing both drove a sharp revaluation on the likelihood of Iran taking military action on July 9.
Jul 13
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Iran Gulf State military action contract jumps 60.2 pp to 81.3% on Polymarket
Whale bets aligned with a sharp 24-hour price surge, pushing odds for Iranian military action significantly higher.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 65.2 percentage points to 86.4% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp rise in odds for Iranian military action against a Gulf state on July 9.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action market surges 70.6 pp to 91.7% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price gains aligned as odds for Iran's Gulf strike jumped sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 64.5 pp to 90.8% on Polymarket
Whale bets and price moves aligned as traders sharply increased odds of Iran striking a Gulf State on July 9.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 55.5pp to 93.0% in 24h on Polymarket
Whale bets moved in sync with a sharp rise in market odds ahead of July 14, 2026 deadline.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran shipping attack market surges 48pp to 71.2% as whales back YES
Whales and retail traders moved in tandem, pushing the probability sharply higher on July 13 Iran shipping attack scenario.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? YES jumps 53.5pp to 77.1%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 24-hour price surge, pushing odds above three-quarters on Polymarket.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 44.5 points to 68.2% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts aligned as the market sharply repriced the chance of Iran acting militarily on July 9.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 69.5 pp to 95% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026, pushing YES price from 25.5% to 95%.
Jul 13