The market on whether Iran will successfully target shipping on July 13 saw a dramatic repricing, with the YES contract climbing 48.0 percentage points to 71.2% from 23.2% over the past 24 hours. This surge reflects a significant shift in market sentiment toward the occurrence of the event.
Whale activity confirmed the price move, with a net inflow of $14K into the YES side. Whale traders executed $26K in buys against $12K in sells, indicating a clear directional preference. The 24-hour Polymarket volume for this contract was $20K, while total lifetime volume stands at $35K, involving 164 unique traders overall and 71 unique whales active in the last day.
The alignment of whale flows with the price increase signals broad conviction across both large and smaller participants. This combined tape of volume and price reflects a rapid reassessment of the probability that Iran will carry out a successful shipping attack on the specified date. The sharp 48.0 pp increase highlights how new information or risk perceptions have sharply tilted the market consensus.
In sum, the market now prices a substantially higher chance of the event, supported by sizable whale buying and relatively heavy recent volume. This repricing underscores the market’s responsiveness to emerging geopolitical risks as reflected in on-chain trading behavior.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +48.0 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 71.2% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 23.2% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $14K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $26K / $12K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 71 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $20K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 164 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-13. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.