Breaking
Houthis shipping attack odds jump 23pp to 37.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price moved in sync as market reassessed risk of Houthis targeting shipping by July 31, 2026.
Jul 13
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
YES price on Strait of Hormuz transit limit jumps 29.1pp to 71.7% as whales back the move
Polymarket’s market on July 31 transit averages sees aligned whale bets and price surge, reflecting sharply increased odds.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? YES price jumps 54.5 pp to 90.0%
Polymarket sees a sharp rise in odds as whale bets align with the surge, pushing YES price from 35.4% to 90.0%.
Jul 13
Breaking
Polymarket Odds for Israel-Lebanon Diplomatic Meeting by July 14 Jump 45pp to 82.5%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in market confidence for a diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon by mid-2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Houthis Shipping Target Market Jumps 20pp to 34.5% on Whale-Aligned Bets
Polymarket’s contract on Houthis targeting shipping by July 31, 2026, saw a sharp 20.0 pp rise in YES price with whale activity confirming the move.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds tumble 25.4 points as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s 'Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?' market saw a sharp 25.4 percentage point drop in YES price despite $15K whale net buying.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action market jumps 48.1 pp to 85.4% on aligned whale flow
Polymarket's Iran military action contract surged as whales increased YES bets, pushing odds sharply higher in 24 hours.
Jul 13
Breaking
Houthis targeting shipping odds surge 25pp to 47% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in the probability that Houthis will successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 57pp to 84% on Polymarket in 24 hours
Whale trading aligned with rapid price jump, pushing odds from 27% to 84% on July 9 Gulf State conflict market
Jul 13
Breaking
Houthis Shipping Attack Odds Surge 28pp to 50% on Polymarket
Whale bets moved in sync with a sharp jump in the market’s probability for successful Houthi strikes by August 31, 2026.
Jul 13