The YES contract on the question “Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?” surged 29.1 percentage points in the past 24 hours, rising from 42.5% to 71.7%.
This sharp revaluation coincided with whale activity that aligned with the price move, indicating that large investors supported the increased likelihood rather than opposing it. The market recorded $6K in volume during this period, underscoring moderate trading interest alongside the significant price shift.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global maritime traffic, and this contract’s repricing suggests growing market confidence that daily transits will remain at or below 20 on the specified date. The alignment of whale flow and price movement confirms that major participants are reinforcing this adjusted probability rather than contradicting it.
This confluence of price and whale flow signals a strong consensus among traders about the event’s odds, reflecting heightened conviction in the market’s assessment of maritime activity at the Strait of Hormuz for late July 2026.
| Market | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2698835 |
| 24h price change | +29.1 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 71.7% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 42.5% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | — |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $0 |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | — / — |
| Unique whales (24h) | — |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $6K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | — |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-14. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.