Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 52.5 pp to 85% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price shifts aligned as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of talks by July 14, 2026.
Jul 14
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Iran MOU withdrawal odds jump 15pp to 38.5% on Polymarket with whale support
The market on Iran’s announcement of MOU withdrawal by August 15 saw a significant rise in YES price accompanied by aligned whale buying.
Jul 14
Breaking
YES price on Houthis targeting shipping surges 27.5pp to 50% on Polymarket
Whale buying and price action aligned as market sharply reprices odds for Houthis' success by August 2026
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? YES price jumps 63pp to 100%
Whale buying aligned with a sharp rise in odds, pushing the market to certainty within 24 hours
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 46.5 points to 86% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price action aligned as market sharply repriced the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Jumps 55.2 Points to 90.4% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in odds for Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 42.5pp to 82.5% in 24h
Whale activity and price movement aligned as market sharply repriced the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 38.5 points to 78% on Polymarket
Whale buying and a 38.5 pp price surge pushed the market sharply higher to indicate growing confidence in a meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds jump 41pp to 78% on Polymarket
Whale buying aligned with a sharp 41.0 percentage point rise in YES price to 78.0%, signaling growing confidence in a meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 13
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 52.9pp to 85.7% on Polymarket
Whale trading aligned with a sharp price jump as the market re-assesses the likelihood of Iran striking on July 9.
Jul 13