Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds jump 52.5 points to 81% amid $5K whale buys
Whales aligned with a sharp 24-hour price surge on Polymarket’s Iran military action market, pushing YES odds from 28.5% to 81%.
Jul 14
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 47.5pp to 83.5% on Polymarket amid whale buying
Whales contributed $5K net into YES contracts as market odds more than doubled in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran Military Action Market Surges 53.5 Points as Whales Back YES
Polymarket's odds for military action on July 14 leapt from 36.0% to 89.5% with $4K whale net inflow confirming the sharp repricing.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 16.1 pp to 97.0% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price action aligned as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of a diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026.
Jul 14
Breaking
US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds drop 17.5 pp despite $42K whale buy flow
Polymarket's YES price for a US-Iran meeting by July 31, 2026, fell sharply while whales increased their YES exposure, signaling a market split.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action market surges 54pp as whales back YES with $4K net flow
Polymarket’s contract on Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14 saw a sharp price jump aligned with whale buying, signaling a rapid shift in market sentiment.
Jul 14
Breaking
Houthis Shipping Target Market Jumps 25.5 Points to 40.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp rise in odds for Houthis successfully targeting shipping by July 31, 2026.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action market YES price jumps 47pp to 91% with whale buying
Whales contributed $4K net buying as Polymarket odds for Iran military action surged sharply in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31? YES price drops 30 pp despite whale bets
The market’s YES contract plunged from 37.5% to 7.5% in 24 hours while whale flow moved against the price trend.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran Hormuz Fees Market Jumps 15.5pp to 23.5% as Whale Flow Supports Move
The market for Iran imposing Hormuz fees by July 31 saw a sharp rise in YES price, backed by aligned whale activity amid $25K volume.
Jul 14