Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds surge 39 pp to 81.5% with whale buying
Whales aligned with price move, adding $3K net into YES as market volume hits $6K
Jul 14
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 23pp to 88.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 23-point jump in the YES price, signaling strong conviction in a diplomatic breakthrough.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 32.8pp to 100% on Polymarket in 24h
Whale bets aligned with price surge as market fully reprices Iran's Gulf conflict risk
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 39.5pp to 88.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour price jump, pushing expectations for a meeting by July 14, 2026 higher.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 45pp to 88.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity and price moves aligned in a sharp 24-hour revaluation of the Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026? contract.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14? YES price jumps 47.5pp to 86.5%
Whale buying aligns with sharp 24-hour price surge as market volume hits $6K on Polymarket
Jul 14
Breaking
US Iran oil sanction relief odds plunge 25.5 pp despite whale buying
Polymarket's 'US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?' YES contract dropped from 38.0% to 12.5%, but whale flow increased YES bets, diverging from the price move.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 48.5 pp to 92% on Polymarket
Whale trades matched a sharp 48.5 percentage-point jump in YES price to 92%, signaling strong market conviction.
Jul 14
Breaking
Houthis Shipping Target Market YES Price Jumps 24.5 Points to 54% on Whale-Aligned Flow
The market on Houthis successfully targeting shipping by August 31, 2026, more than doubled in probability as large traders backed the move.
Jul 14
Breaking
Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting odds surge 49pp to 81.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour rise in the probability of a diplomatic meeting by mid-2026, signaling strong market conviction.
Jul 14