Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 14?” YES price jumps 63.6pp to 91.1%
Whale trading aligned with a sharp 24-hour surge on Polymarket, lifting odds from 27.5% to 91.1%.
Jul 14
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?” YES contract jumps 81.7 pp to 90.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with the sharp price surge, driving $9K net flow into YES amid $60K 24-hour volume.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?” YES price jumps 87.5 pp to 96.4% on Polymarket
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour rise with $7K net flow into YES contracts amid $57K total volume.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action on July 9? YES price jumps 60.7 pp to 100%
Whale activity aligned with a dramatic surge in market odds, pushing the probability from 39.3% to certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
Houthis shipping attack odds plunge 34.1pp to 15.5% despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?” market saw a sharp drop in YES price while whale flow diverged, signaling conflicting signals.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action market surges 55.4pp to 100% as whale bets confirm move
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?” contract jumps from 44.5% to certainty amid aligned whale flow and $672K volume.
Jul 14
Breaking
“Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?” YES price falls 28.6 pp despite whale buying
The market’s YES price dropped sharply from 44.1% to 15.6% in 24 hours while whale flows diverged, signaling conflicting signals on the contract.
Jul 14
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 50pp to 84.5% on Polymarket with aligned whale buying
Whales contributed $5K net buying into YES as the market price soared from 34.5% to 84.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 14
Breaking
Polymarket YES price on Houthis targeting shipping drops 54.9 pp in 24h
Whale flow diverged sharply as odds plunged from 70.5% to 15.7%, signaling market skepticism despite whale buying.
Jul 14
Breaking
Houthis Shipping Target Odds Jump 18pp to 53.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity confirmed the sharp rise in probability for Houthis targeting shipping by August 31, 2026.
Jul 14