Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds drop 27pp as whale flow diverges from price
Despite a sharp 27.0 percentage point fall in the contract’s YES price, whale trading moved against the market direction on Polymarket.
Jul 15
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” YES odds drop 27.6 pp to 8.5% amid whale-price divergence
Whales bought $4K in YES contracts even as market price fell sharply from 36.1% to 8.5%, signaling a split between big traders and broader market sentiment.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds drop 26pp to 63.5% as whale flow diverges
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” market saw a sharp 26.0 percentage point drop in YES price, with whale activity moving against the price trend.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” YES price plunges 33.6 pp amid whale buying divergence
Whales increased YES bets by $4K even as market odds dropped sharply from 41.4% to 7.8% in 24 hours, signaling conflicting signals in the market.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran Gulf strike odds plunge 30.5pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket's 'Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?' contract saw a sharp drop in YES price amid opposing whale activity.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 29pp to 94% as whales buy $6K in sync
Polymarket’s market on July 15 Gulf conflict sees sharp price lift matched by whale buying, signaling strong alignment between price and flow.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” YES price drops 38.6 pp amid whale flow divergence
YES contract for Iran shipping target falls from 46.9% to 8.2% despite $4K whale buys, signaling mixed market signals
Jul 15
Breaking
Russia-Ukraine Diplomatic Meeting Market Jumps 23pp to 69.5% on Whale Buying
Whales added $10K net to YES as Polymarket prices a sharp rise in odds for talks by July 31, 2026.
Jul 15
Breaking
US blockade end odds drop 21pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?” contract fell from 71.5% to 50.5% despite whale activity moving against the price shift.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” YES price plunges 41.6 pp despite $4K whale buying
Whale activity diverged from the sharp market sell-off, signaling a split in conviction over the event’s likelihood.
Jul 15