The probability of “Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?” on Polymarket plunged 27.6 percentage points over 24 hours, dropping from 36.1% to 8.5%, according to the Polymarket Breaking feed. This sharp price decline contrasts with whale activity, which saw a net $4K inflow into YES contracts during the same period. Whale buy volume totaled $6K against $3K in sells, involving 46 unique whales.
Polymarket recorded $5K in total 24-hour volume on this market, contributing to a lifetime market volume of $45K with 211 unique traders overall. The divergence between whale flow and price movement is notable, flagged explicitly by Polymarket data as flow diverging from price. Despite the market sharply lowering odds that Iran targeted shipping on July 13, whales appear to be accumulating YES positions rather than exiting.
The combined picture of falling market prices and rising whale purchases indicates a contested view on the likelihood of the event, underscoring uncertainty around this geopolitical question within the prediction market.
| Market | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? |
|---|---|
| Market ID | 2835636 |
| 24h price change | +27.6 pp |
| YES now (PM Breaking) | 8.5% |
| YES ~24h ago (est.) | 36.1% |
| YES (Polydata overview) | 8.5% |
| Whale net flow (24h) | $4K |
| Whale buy / sell (24h) | $6K / $3K |
| Unique whales (24h) | 46 |
| Volume 24h (PM) | $5K |
| Unique traders (Polydata) | 211 |
Source: Polydata API v3 · /whales/flow + Polymarket Breaking · snapshot 2026-07-15. Data: Polydata API v3. On-chain figures are public. Realized PnL is computed over resolved markets only and excludes open positions, so it is conservative versus the Polymarket UI. This is not investment advice.