Breaking
Iran Gulf military action odds drop 43pp as whale flow diverges from price
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” contract fell from 91.5% to 48.5% despite whales not backing the decline.
Jul 15
#%sgeopolitics
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 431 stories.
Breaking
“Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13?” YES price falls 33.5 pp amid whale flow divergence
Polymarket’s odds for Iranian military action dropped from 91.5% to 58.0% in 24 hours despite whale activity not supporting the sell-off.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action market surges 30.5pp as whales back YES contracts
Whale buying and price jumps aligned as Polymarket’s Iran Gulf State conflict odds rose sharply.
Jul 15
Breaking
“Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?” YES price jumps 89.9 pp to 97.7% with whale backing
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour surge in the market’s odds, pushing the YES price from 7.8% to near certainty.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 30pp to 92.5% with whale buying confirming move
Whales supported the sharp rise in Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?” market, pushing yes odds from 62.5% to 92.5% in 24 hours.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 38.5 points to 92.5% with whale buying support
Polymarket’s “Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?” market saw a sharp jump in YES price alongside $3K net whale inflows.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds surge 48.5pp to 89.5% on Polymarket with whale support
Whales contributed $3K net into YES as the market sharply repriced the likelihood of Iran striking a Gulf State on July 15.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action market YES price jumps 47 points to 90.5%
Whales supported the sharp 24-hour rise with $3K net flow into YES contracts amid a volume of $6K.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 32.5pp to 85.5% as whales back YES on Polymarket
Whale net flow of $3K aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise in the Iran Gulf State military action market.
Jul 15
Breaking
Iran shipping attack odds plunge 36.5 points as whale buying diverges
YES contract on Iran targeting shipping dropped from 46.8% to 10.3% despite $5K whale inflows
Jul 14