Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 33 points to 100% on July 17 on Polymarket
Whales supported the surge with $23K net buying as YES price climbed from 67% to certainty in 24 hours.
Jul 18
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Darline Graham Nordone’s odds as Republican Senate nominee jump 53.3 pp to 65.8%
Whale bets and price action moved in tandem as market sentiment shifted sharply over 24 hours.
Jul 17
Breaking
Claude Opus Model Release Odds Jump 18pp to 90.5% on Polymarket
Whale activity supported the surge as the market recalibrated toward a July 31, 2026 release date for the Claude Opus model.
Jul 17
Breaking
Israel x Iran ceasefire odds jump 26pp to 75% with whale flow confirming move
Polymarket’s market on ceasefire continuation shows strong alignment between whale bets and price surge, signaling heightened confidence.
Jul 17
Breaking
Iran military action odds jump 36pp to 82.5% with $14K whale buying
Whales aligned with a sharp 36pp rise in YES price, driving the market toward a higher probability on Polymarket.
Jul 17
Breaking
ECB 25bps Hike Odds Jump 21pp to 80.5% on Polymarket with Whale Support
The probability of a September 2026 ECB rate hike surged sharply alongside $4K whale net buys, signaling aligned market conviction.
Jul 17
Breaking
Darline Graham Nordone’s Nomination Odds Surge 55 Points to 69% on Polymarket
Whale activity tracked the sharp 55-point jump in YES price for South Carolina Senate GOP nomination market.
Jul 17
Breaking
NVIDIA 24h YES Price Jumps 16.5 pp to 38.5% with Whale Flow in Sync
Whales added $2K net into YES as market odds for NVIDIA’s July 31 ranking surged from 22.0%.
Jul 17
Breaking
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 YES price jumps 17.1pp to 90.1% as whales back the move
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour price rise, pushing the launch probability from 73.0% to 90.1%.
Jul 17
Breaking
“Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?” YES price falls 16.5 pp as whale flow diverges
Polymarket's YES contract for Count Binface’s second place finish drops from 80.5% to 64.0% despite whale activity moving against the price shift.
Jul 17