Breaking
Claude Opus model release odds jump 24.5pp to 53.0% ahead of July 22, 2026
Whale activity matched a sharp 24-hour repricing that pushed yes contract price above 50% on Polymarket.
Jul 18
Archive
Daily digests, accuracy rankings and market reads on Polymarket data. 2,341 stories.
Breaking
Israel x Iran ceasefire odds surge 52pp to 61.5% amid aligned whale buying
Polymarket's 'Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?' market saw a sharp rise in YES price with whale activity confirming the move.
Jul 18
Breaking
Israel military action by July 31? YES price jumps 15pp to 24% with whale support
Polymarket’s odds for Israeli military action against Yemen surged sharply, backed by $5K whale net inflow into YES contracts.
Jul 18
Breaking
Anthropic Claude Fable 5 extension odds drop 15pp despite whale buying
Polymarket’s “Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?” market saw its YES price fall from 76.5% to 61.5% amid $59K volume, while whale flow diverged by supporting YES positions.
Jul 18
Breaking
Darline Graham Nordone Nominee Odds Surge 56.8 Points to 69% on Polymarket
Whale activity aligned with a sharp 24-hour jump in YES price for South Carolina Senate nomination market.
Jul 18
Whales
Whale Bets $372K Against 0.35% Market Odds on Fed Rate Cut in July 2026
A single wallet with a 64.2% accuracy record placed the largest trade on Polymarket, backing a low-probability Fed rate cut outcome.
Jul 18
Breaking
NVIDIA largest company odds drop 15pp to 55.5% despite $29K whale buy flow
Whale buying diverged from a sharp 15.0 pp decline in YES price on Polymarket for NVIDIA's market cap lead by July 31.
Jul 18
Breaking
World Cup Final Weather Delay Odds Plunge 44.5 Points Despite Whale Buying
Polymarket’s “World Cup Final: Weather Delay?” contract dropped from 49.5% to 5.0% even as whales increased their YES bets, signaling a sharp price-flow divergence.
Jul 18
Daily
Polymarket Sees $49.68M in 24-Hour Volume, Top Markets Focused on 2026 FIFA World Cup
Volume edged 5.0% above the prior five-day average with football-related markets leading open interest.
Jul 18
Breaking
NVIDIA Largest Company Market Cap Odds Drop 16.5pp Despite $31K Whale Buy Flow
Whale activity diverged from a sharp 16.5 percentage point decline in YES price for NVIDIA largest company market cap market.
Jul 18